The Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 Economic Responses on First Home Buyers? Evidence from New South Wales, Australia

As in many other nations, the Australian Government implemented monetary and fiscal policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to aid economic recovery. Among these policies were specific measures to assist first home buyers (FHBs) in entering the housing market. However, these unprecedented economic policies might have other direct and indirect implications on FHBs, which have yet to be thoroughly explored in the literature. To fill this gap, through a survey, we collected information via public and online mortgage broker platforms from 61 FHBs who successfully entered the housing market or were actively searching during the pandemic. The results found COVID-19 economic responses counterproductive for FHBs, pushing them to a more disadvantaged position due to an overheated property market. In addition, since the onset of the pandemic, property prices have risen significantly, exacerbating housing inequality as FHBs increasingly rely on intergenerational family support, take on more financial risk, and relocate to regional areas due to fear of missing out. The study highlights the need for macroeconomists and housing policymakers to consider these unintended consequences in formulating policies that minimise the adverse effects of economic stimulus measures.

Defying the Odds: Remittances during the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries have bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during January 2020–December 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer;(ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances;and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in the host country is positively associated with remittance flows to migrants' home country as the fiscal response cushioned the economic impact of the pandemic. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Development Studies is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Review on entrepreneurial orientation, economic stimulus packages, differentiation strategy and SME performance in Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic

PurposeThe study aims to establish and conceptualise entrepreneurial orientation (EO) as a key construct that positively influences small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) performance. In this paper, a conceptual framework was developed, and three research propositions were outlined: EO (innovativeness, proactiveness and risk-taking) positively influences SME performance;the economic stimulus packages moderate EO and the differentiation strategy;and the differentiation strategy mediates EO and SME performance. Each of the constructs was defined, and the conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia were identified.Design/methodology/approachThe paper suggests links between EO and SME performance and the effects of economic stimulus packages and differentiation strategies on Malaysia's service and manufacturing industry. These concepts lead to the development of propositions based on prior empirical studies underpinning the resource-based view theory and contingency approach. The propositions aim to develop further findings and test the hypotheses.FindingsThe study proposes three research propositions to conceptualise the relationship between the four main constructs. The study also recommends an empirical approach to conduct and test the research model concerning Malaysia's service and manufacturing industry.Originality/valueWhile studies on EO and SME performance have been conducted extensively, studies on the impact of various economic stimulus packages by the Malaysian government on the existing EO and SME performance relationship during the COVID-19 pandemic are limited. Separately, this study uses a configuration approach to test the mediator and moderator during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Review on entrepreneurial orientation, economic stimulus packages, differentiation strategy and SME performance in Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose - The study aims to establish and conceptualise entrepreneurial orientation (EO) as a key construct that positively influences small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) performance. In this paper, a conceptual framework was developed, and three research propositions were outlined: EO (innovativeness, proactiveness and risk-taking) positively influences SME performance;the economic stimulus packages moderate EO and the differentiation strategy;and the differentiation strategy mediates EO and SME performance. Each of the constructs was defined, and the conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia were identified. Design/methodology/approach - The paper suggests links between EO and SME performance and the effects of economic stimulus packages and differentiation strategies on Malaysia's service and manufacturing industry. These concepts lead to the development of propositions based on prior empirical studies underpinning the resource-based view theory and contingency approach. The propositions aim to develop further findings and test the hypotheses. Findings - The study proposes three research propositions to conceptualise the relationship between the four main constructs. The study also recommends an empirical approach to conduct and test the research model concerning Malaysia's service and manufacturing industry. Originality/value - While studies on EO and SME performance have been conducted extensively, studies on the impact of various economic stimulus packages by the Malaysian government on the existing EO and SME performance relationship during the COVID-19 pandemic are limited. Separately, this study uses a configuration approach to test the mediator and moderator during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trade-Off between COVID-19 Pandemic Prevention and Control and Economic Stimulus.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed a severe threat to public health and economic activity. Governments all around the world have taken positive measures to, on the one hand, contain the epidemic spread and, on the other hand, stimulate the economy. Without question, tightened anti-epidemic policy measures restrain people's mobility and deteriorate the levels of social and economic activity. Meanwhile, loose policy measures bring little harm to the economy temporarily but could accelerate the transmission of the virus and ultimately wreck social and economic development. Therefore, these two kinds of governmental decision-making behaviors usually conflict with each other. With the purpose of realizing optimal socio-economic benefit over the full duration of the epidemic and to provide a helpful suggestion for the government, a trade-off is explored in this paper between the prevention and control of the epidemic, and economic stimulus. First, the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model is introduced to simulate the epidemic dynamics. Second, a state equation is constructed to describe the system state variable-the level of socio-economic activity dominated by two control variables. Specifically, these two variables are the strengths of the measures taken for pandemic prevention and control, and economic stimulus. Then, the objective function used to maximize the total socio-economic benefit over the epidemic's duration is defined, and an optimal control problem is developed. The statistical data of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan are used to validate the SIR model, and a COVID-19 epidemic scenario is used to evaluate the proposed method. The solution is discussed in both static and dynamic strategies, according to the knowledge of the epidemic's duration. In the static strategy, two scenarios with different strengths (in terms of anti-epidemic and economic stimulus measures) are analyzed and compared. In the dynamic strategy, two global optimization algorithms, including the dynamic programming (DP) and Pontryagin's minimum principle (PMP), respectively, are used to acquire the solutions. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of model parameters is conducted. The results demonstrate that the static strategy, which is independent of the epidemic's duration and can be easily solved, is capable of finding the optimal strengths of both policy measures. Meanwhile, the dynamic strategy, which generates global optimal trajectories of the control variables, can provide the path that leads to attaining the optimal total socio-economic benefit. The results reveal that the optimal total socio-economic benefit of the dynamic strategy is slightly higher than that of the static strategy.

From hope to disappointment? Following the 'Taking Place' and 'Organisation' of hope in 'Building Back Better' from COVID-19.

Rapid economic stimulus in response to COVID-19, typically based on 'shovel-ready' infrastructure, has opened up new political spaces of hope to 'Build Back Better' and transform economies. This research seeks to link the public 'taking place' of hope, representing the aspirations of various groups for investment or change stimulated by this fund, with the less visible ways governments 'organise' hope, the expert, technical processes and rationalities that help determine which hopes become realised and why. Using the Aotearoa New Zealand 'shovel-ready' fund as a case study, and drawing upon press releases, media, Official Information requests, and Cabinet documents, we first provide a discourse analysis of the various government and non-government hopes that became attached to this stimulus. We then trace how these became translated into project proposals, before unpacking and analysing the urgent processes developed to assist political decision makers. While crises and hope can be positioned as having significant disruptive potential, we reveal how this was stifled by the technical processes and practices of the processual world enacted at the national scale, which was given significant power. Further, although public discourses reflected a plurality of multi-scalar and temporal hopes for investment, in practice the less visible organisation privileged a much more business-as-usual approach. Consequently, any government aspirations for transformation were rendered less likely due to the processes they themselves established. Overall, we emphasise the need for those committed to reform to bring technical processes and rational practices to greater prominence in order to reveal and challenge their power.

Machine Learning Models for Predicting Financially Vigilant Low-Income Households

The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected households’lives in terms of social and economic factors across the world. The Malaysian government has devised a number of stimulus packages to combat the pandemic’s effects. Stimulus packages would be insufficient to alleviate household financial burdens if they did not target those most affected by lockdowns. As a result, assessing household financial vigilance in the case of crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial. This study aimed to develop machine learning models for predicting and profiling financially vigilant households. The Special Survey on the Economic Effects of Covid-19 and Individual Round 1 provided secondary data for this study. As a research methodology, a cross-industry standard process for data mining is followed. Five machine learning algorithms were used to build predictive models. Among all, Gradient Boosted Tree was identified as the best predictive model based on F-score measure. The findings showed machine learning approach can provide a robust model to predict households’financial vigilances, and this information might be used to build appropriate and effective economic stimulus packages in the future. Researchers, academics and policymakers in the field of household finance can use these recommendations to help them leverage machine learning. Author

Unemployment claims during COVID-19 and economic support measures in the U.S.

Governments want to know how effective COVID-19 anti-contagion policies and implemented economic stimulus measures have been to plan their short-run interventions. We condition on the state of the pandemic to assess the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and economic stimulus policies on the excess unemployment insurance claims in the United States. We focus on weekly data between February 2020 and January 2021 and motivate our analysis by the theoretical framework of the second-wave SIR-macro type models to build a panel Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) specification. Non-pharmaceutical interventions become effective immediately and impact the labor market negatively. Economic stimulus takes about a month to turn effective and only partially eases the economic welfare losses. Health-related restrictive measures are primarily driven by the state of the pandemic. Economic support policies depend predominantly on the reaction of the labor market rather than the severity of the pandemic itself.

Economic impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and assessment of green economic recovery policy

China is now facing the double pressure of economic downturn brought by COVID-19 and low-carbon transition. The trade-off between short-term economic recovery and long-term green development makes it necessary to design the economic recovery policies under multiple objectives. This paper constructs a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and analyses the process from the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic to its economic impact and then to government intervention. The results show that 1) the short-term economic recovery effects of all three economic stimulus policies are remarkable. Under the green economic stimulus policy, GDP grew by 3.3%, 5.3% and 6% in the second, third and fourth quarter of 2020. 2) the green economic stimulus policy reduced economic fluctuations, thus acting as an automatic stabilizer and contributing to a stable economic recovery. 3) in the long run, the green economic stimulus policy is conducive to achieving a green transition of the economy, and avoiding a high carbon lock-in effect in the future. More importantly, it is the preferred path to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target. We estimate that each 1 CNY increase in green investment will reduce future abatement costs by 1.5~2.6 CNY. © 2022, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.

Optimal allocations to heterogeneous agents with an application to stimulus checks

A planner allocates discrete transfers of size Dg to N heterogeneous groups labeled g and has CES preferences over the resulting outcomes, Hg(Dg). We derive a closed-form solution for optimally allocating a fixed budget subject to group-specific inequality constraints under the assumption that increments in the Hg functions are non-increasing. We illustrate our method by studying allocations of “support checks” from the U.S. government to households during both the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We compare the actual allocations to optimal ones under alternative constraints, assuming the government focused on stimulating aggregate consumption during the 2008–2009 crisis and focused on welfare during the 2020–2021 crisis. The inputs for this analysis are obtained from versions of a life-cycle model with heterogeneous households, which predicts household-type-specific consumption and welfare responses to tax rebates and cash transfers.

Supporting Workers and Families in the Pandemic Recession: Results in 2020 and Suggestions for 2021

We review several spending programs designed to support Americans through the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We group these into programs designed to stabilize the labor market and facilitate its recovery and those that provided financial relief to households independent of their employment history. We review the extent to which these programs reached intended beneficiaries along with early evidence of program impacts. Overall, we find the programs were highly successful at delivering intended aid in 2020. Nevertheless, we identify common areas where programs could improve as support continues through 2021, and we discuss related needs that have so far received less attention from policymakers.

Policy reactions to the Covid-19 pandemic: An overview of political and economic influences across Europe

The reactions of the respective governments of the European Union both to the sanitary and economic risks of the Covid-19 pandemic varied tremendously. The objective of this paper is to explain the variation in lockdown and economic measures by political and institutional factors. Both the respective restrictive and economic measures throughout the European Union are presented. The first unit of the paper consists of a literature review of political factors (such as institutional structures and capacities, ideology and the effect of upcoming elections) that may have influenced the stringency of the restrictive measures introduced. As no previous study researched the effects of the above factors on the magnitude of economic packages, a regression analysis was conducted to examine if political ideology, democratic freedom and the timely proximity of elections influenced the extent of economic aid. While these factors could not prove to show significant influence on the extent of economic stimulus packages, several possible explanations are provided in order to understand the relative homogeneity of fiscal and monetary intervention in the EU. © 2021 Tamás Ginter, published by Sciendo.

Impact of the Economic Stimulus Measures on Lithuanian Real Estate Market under the Conditions of the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a number of challenges worldwide regarding not only the human health perspective, but also the economic situation. Quarantine, imposed in many countries, forced a substantial part of businesses to close or narrow down their activities, thus leaving corporations and employees without any or with lower income. If national governments had not undertaken any actions to save national economies, the consequences could have been even more devastating. The real estate market is an important part of economy. Instability in the real estate market can cause financial problems, vulnerability of population's welfare and other negative effects. This research aims to assess the impact of the economic stimulus measures on the real estate market under the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lithuania. The research methods include comparative analysis, correlation analysis, stationarity test, regression analysis and the ARDL models. The results indicate that the economic stimulus measures only partially contribute to stabilization of the real estate market in Lithuania. The drop in housing prices was 2.9 percent lower because of the economic stimulus in the second quarter of 2020. Maintenance of household cash and deposits as well as lending to business enterprises are the measures that allow to stabilize the real estate market in the shortest time under the conditions of the economic shock. The other governmental support measures are also important, especially if they are aimed at preserving jobs.

Do stock markets play a role in determining COVID-19 economic stimulus? A cross-country analysis.

This paper makes an innovative contribution to the extant literature by analysing the determinants of economic stimulus packages implemented by governments in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we explore whether stock market declines observed in many countries can predict the size of COVID-19 stimulus packages. Moreover, we explore whether a country's level of income can augment the underlying relationship between stock market declines and stimulus packages. The findings reveal that a larger stock market decline results in a larger stimulus package; however, this effect is only observed in countries that have an income level greater than the mean and/or median per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, our results show that monetary policy is more responsive to a stock market decline than fiscal policy. Thus, our results underscore the importance of international donor agencies such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in supporting less affluent countries in coping with the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on their economies.

The impact of Covid-19 pandemic: A review on maritime sectors in Malaysia.

The coronavirus disease 2019 or Covid-19 pandemic has affected many operations worldwide. This predicament also owes to the lockdown measures imposed by the affected countries. The total lockdown or partial lockdown devised by countries all over the world meant that most economic activities, be put on hold until the outbreak is contained. The decisions made by authorities of each affected country differs according to various factors, including the country's financial stability. This paper reviews the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on maritime sectors, specifically shipping, fisheries, maritime tourism, and oil and gas sector. The period of this study covers economic activities between the month of January towards the end of July 2020. Also discussed in this journal, is the analysis of the potential post-outbreak situation and the economic stimulus package. This paper serves as a reference for future research on this topic.

Economic stimulus for COVID-19 pandemic and its determinants: evidence from cross-country analysis.

Countries around the world are announcing stimulus packages in response to the COVID 19 pandemic. This research attempts to measure the extent and progress of stimulus packages by proposing a multidimensional index that standardizes governments' economic responses and allows us to examine the differences in economic policies from country to country. We apply the Euclidean distance formula to develop the new index and then identify the determinants of the economic stimulation of COVID-19 through beta-regression. The results show that Chile, Switzerland, Croatia, Sweden and the Netherlands responded more strongly to the COVID-19 pandemic, while the remaining countries responded slightly to the pandemic. Empirical results also indicate that most countries increased COVID-19 economic support, although not significantly. Finally, the results of the beta regression show that the median age of the population, the number of hospitals, beds per capita, the number of total COVID-19 cases, GDP, health care expenditure and the index of the severity of the government's response is significantly related to the level of the countries' stimulus packages.